Polybius wrote about the problems with historical governance, specifically how they tend to breakdown over time:
- Monarchy (rule by one) –> leads to tyranny
- Aristocracy (rule by a few) –> leads to oligarchy
- Democracy (rule by all) –> leads to ochlocracy
Have you ever heard of ochlocracy? If not, then likely we might not even recognize it.
More importantly, he, like many other historians, were sure that no ruling system would last forever, and that is what the Founding Fathers knew. Their goal, was based much on history of Greece and Rome, in attempts to reduce the chances of mistakes when designing the Constitution, and a republic seemed to have the longest viability and most freedom
The best way to predict future breakdown is by looking at the attitudes of current citizens towards each of these outcomes.
Tyranny
We do not have a monarchy, so in the current state, that seems very unlikely, although I do find it interesting that Adolf Hitler was “legally” able to turn his democracy into a monarchy when Germany was under duress.
It of course Germany, Russia and other countries quickly succumbsed into tyrannies of the left (communism) and right (fascism).
Oligarchy
There is also growing pressure against the wealthy and business involvement in govt. such as contributions to political campaigns and lobbying, or corporations attempting to get bills pass in their favor.
Ochlocracy – Mobocracy)
Considering that polybius thought the natural outcome ot a democracy was mobocracy, this is the first reason to expect that this is our future outcome. Simply giving control to the people (democracy) will continue to grow until it becomes lop-sided and self-destructs.
Not only did Keyens suggest the same behvior of an advanced society, but so did polybius.
And what would a leisure filled society do? Seek for social status and control, which brings up Samuel Adams:
If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin.
More Reasons Why Mob Rule is the Most Likely Outcome of Our Future
Tyranny and oligarchy do not seem likely because there is such a high resistance to each, whereas mob rule has no resistance today.
There is nothing less appealing to both conservative and liberal Americans today than tyrannical govt. of any kind. Although pressure of tyrannical rule are likely to appear during difficult times, the right to bear arms puts real limits on such.
Oligarchy is also regularly monitored by the press, and citizens from both sides tend to denounce such.
But virtually no one talks about the possibility of mob rule, perhaps because it would be self-critical to a society ruled by its citizens.
How might it grow today? The sheer power of technology surely gives govt. more power as they race to build the first true AI, but also to citizens as they vie for exert power and control over others. Social media is just one example: Say one wrong thing, and you can have a million people that hate you within minutes. Post a radically dangerous idea, and have a million followers within weeks.
Recognizing the Traits Required for Mob Rule
1. Rejection of authority.
Rule, authority, and leadership is increasingly despised in much of the West, as pure self-interest grows, mainly rejection of the other two groups (ruling-class, government). Even some East-European and Asian countries mock Americas lack of current order and leadership as people and special interest groups are increasingly empowered and a disappearing hierarchy of order in all institutions.
2. Mob rule is also defined as when the population resorts to intimidation of legitimate authorities. In other words, rejection of the military, police, and other ruling leaders. A situation that is somewhat familiar in South America and some American cities.
3. If there is evidence that that process of declining trust has been in motion for 50+ years, it can be summarized in one chart:
In fact, trust in all institutions is declining similarly. No one trusts anyone.
Perhaps a generational perspective shows you how its unlikely to change, and intrestingly, coincides with a loss in many other values (work, family, religion, etc…):
But maybe mob rule is not the final outcome of the US. Populism could be a factor, but a rejection of elitism is not the same as a rejection of established authority,; or maybe a breakdown between various cultural groups; or perhaps a destruction of all rule and order, which is anarchy. For some reason, anarchy seems the most probable at this point.