I have never seen a chart that shows the overarching goal of central banks’ attempts to smooth the growth of the US economy, combining money supply with the velocity of money. After the charts, there is a detailed explanation as to why banks print money, how they are trying to avoid another Great Depression, the …
Is the world happier than ever, or just more pleasure filled than ever? and how do we tell the difference? Perhaps the most difficult question in defining happiness is how it relates to pleasure, for more people think of it as the same, but I think of pleasure as the short term fix, or escape, …
If gold is skyrocketing, it’s simply a sign that the economic or fiat current systems are failing, therefore, I do not wish gold to do very well. The growth of gold would be a symbol that fiat and dollars are failing, a process which is currently happening slowly around the world, largely visible by global …
In short, the 2008 housing crisis was caused by a combination of factors including lax lending standards, the widespread issuance of subprime mortgages, artificially inflated housing prices, a lack of regulation in the financial market, high levels of household and financial sector debt, and a failure by credit rating agencies to accurately assess the risk …
Whose Fault is It? Comparing the 2008 Financial Crisis to Today’s Problems Read More »
Because if you and I don’t reform it, we will all be working for the federal government in the near future. There are lots of numbers to consider when looking at a potentially lopsided govt, but all of them seem to fall short in my mind. Even debt-to-GDP is simply a long-term accumulation of a …
The #1 Reason to Reform the Federal Government: Govt Spending-to-GDP Read More »
If the only way our economy can be prevented from crashing is for the central govt bank to buy assets (a.k.a. invest), when the general population and businesses are unwilling or unable to, then you can be sure that is the greatest indicator of moral hazard in the modern financial world. In addition to lowering …
How the Fed is Increasingly Engaging in Moral Hazard, Increasing Existential Risk Read More »
When a bank run occurred in the Great Depression, Roosevelt simply declared a banking “holiday” which was to close banks for a time: “After a month-long run on American banks, Franklin Delano Roosevelt proclaimed a Bank Holiday, beginning March 6, 1933, that shut down the banking system. When the banks reopened on March 13, depositors …
How Safe is FDIC Insurance Really? – What Most People Don’t Know Read More »
So what does it mean if the entire world has stopped growing new consumers and producers? “U.S. growth didn’t slowly fade away: It slipped, and slipped, and then fell off a cliff. The 2010s were already demographically stagnant; every year from 2011 to 2017, the U.S. grew by only 2 million people. In 2020, the …
The Real Reason the World GDP is Nearing a Standstill: 0% Population Growth Read More »
The answer depends on the type of person you are and what you believe, but in America, it is generally accepted that the mortality rate from hunger is essentially zero; well, statistically unmeasurable to be precise. Of course, this does not mean we should ignore the few, shrinking hunger category, or ignore the larger groups …
There are few undebatable facts in economics, and far fewer that even deserve any mention, but if there is one trend I want to impress upon you the most, it is visible in this single chart: “A central tenet of a free enterprise market economy is limited government. In this limited role, the government protects …
Government Spending to GDP – The Real Elephant in the Room Read More »
Why either technology will need to end in its current format, or tyranny will need to become the norm in order to protect us from others with large technological powers. Let’s step through the 5 undeniable tenants that support this theory: 1. Over time, the cost of technology declines. Is this point even debatable? Technology …
Technology or Tyranny: The Cheapening Cost of Nukes & Other Dangers Read More »
First off, you need to remember that the definition of failure of a civilization is going to vary widely within a population, and generally if goes unnoticed by its participants as they are distracted, confused, apathetic towards, incapable of changing, or in denial regarding the decay. With that said, let’s proceed by generally accepted definitions …
Simple: Quit buying stuff you don’t really need, and that is a lot of stuff. Can you imagine the societal and global repercussions if enough people stopped buying things that are unnecessary? It would crash the gobal financial system in the short run, especially with currently declining fertility trends, and I tend to think a …
Govt Debt to GDP is Incomplete Until You Multiply its Effects by the Size of its Economy It is one thing to say the US has the largest total debt in the world, but until you measure that as a percentage of GDP, it is fairly meaningless, therefore, multiplying its leverage (debt to GDP), by …
Lets assume productivity is based on three general principles: Number of workers How hard they work How smart they work This is my basic formula: Workers x effort x innovation So if that creates supply of products and services, then what will consume it? Where factors that will cause the shift in the flow of …
Why We Will Probably See Price Increase (Inflation) for a Long Time Read More »
Here is a total population map of the U.S. Similarly, here is a population density map of the US. The population density map however is more correlative of this other interesting map: Now, time to animate the results I would so much prefer to do the same analysis at the local (county/zip/city) level, but I …
In short, this chart shows that while real GDP is growing (0.2%/year), the change in that growth is slowing every year. Maybe there are other explanations for the steady slow decline, like how we are no longer a manufacturing economy, but all in all, I would say it’s predictable of an aging society. From 1970, …
Are Americans Really Becoming Lazier? The Evidence Read More »
While plenty of sources show total govt debt to GDP ratio, for most countries in the world, there are few sources which tally ALL debt: personal, corporate, and government (private and public). According to CEIC Data, this includes “. Total Debt is calculated as sum of Liabilities for NonFinancial Business, Federal Government, State and Local …
How Much Debt Does the Average American Really Owe in 2022? $720,000 per Household Read More »
Based on current trends, the US will reach a negative population growth rate by 2036. I just think that’s interesting. It’s also in the range period I defined as the 30 year bottleneck period, which is the result of global population possibly peaking, general AI, general labor robots, changes in aging, massive debt-to-GDP run-up, etc…. …
2036 – The Date America May Start Losing Population Read More »
Summary: The goal of this article is to use logic to conclude the real causes of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and how to end it. I prefer to start with questions because it will help you to form your own conclusions. I am also going to call out the media bias that has been going …
Thankfulness Gratitude will return, when we recognize the materialist ways we lived for so long are gone. Gratitude is often at its lowest when people’s success is at its highest. Humanity Humanity will return as we are forced to depend on, and love each other. The decline of the community over the last 60 years is …
Had a few people asking for something like this. Actually I had made it for myself first.
This is part of a series about the overall declining trust in media, news, and society as a whole. The goal of this piece is to demonstrate the size, change over time, and depth of the issue through various charts. You can make your own conclusions. 1. The decline is not limited to the USA …
The Decline of Trust in Government – The Most Comprehensive View Read More »
It is fairly well known in sociological circles that trust in government, media, education, and the the press have been declining for decades. Exceptions are the scientific community and the military (rising). Interestingly, news stories abound as to the “why” of such steady decline in trust. However, explaining the why of any such historical patterns …
Summary: China adhered strongly to Communism both economically and politically. They have relinquished the economic portion, now very much a free-market system, which is the real reason for their growth (not leadership), but their govt. does not want to relinquish the political component. However, as time has clearly told, the future will cause democracy to …
The Future of China & The Real Reasons Why Chinese People Trust
their Government Read More »
Polybius wrote about the problems with historical governance, specifically how they tend to breakdown over time: Monarchy (rule by one) –> leads to tyranny Aristocracy (rule by a few) –> leads to oligarchy Democracy (rule by all) –> leads to ochlocracy Have you ever heard of ochlocracy? If not, then likely we might not even …
If you have read this site much, you will hear me frequently say we are in an everything bubble (many asset classes). Either that or a big inflation, but I tend to think price crash then inflation. Perhaps the single largest predictor of the last housing bubble was to compare growth in home prices against …
While so much attention is being paid to the growth of the national debt, now at $22 trillion, we should be fair and at least consider what it was to offset that debt: its assets. The latest Treasury report shows that we have assets! However, the assets are not what they appear to be when …
Why the US Govt. Balance Sheet Shows is Worse Than You Think Read More »
Alternate titles: Violence, Pleasure or Both: What the End of the World Looks Like Why Humanity Will Self Destruct Within the Near Future Evidence The End is Already Under Way The case against “Technological Utopianism” In essence, this is a summary of this website. The first question is, why bother predicting, especially if it is …
11 Reasons the USA & the World Will End Within the Next 100
Years Read More »
Did you know we already had the equivalent to the Great Depression, but first, no one noticed. Second, the system was inflated to prevent a much worse situation. Dont believe it? Note that as a percentage of the population, there were more people on food stamps in the 2008 crisis than there were in the …
Major Total workers (fertility + immigration) x Total man hours x Productivity / effort Minor Ingenuity and creativity Really, the main factors that drive the above boil down to just a few items: Total workers is are broken down into two groups: Immigration rates Fertility rates Since immigration tends to attract intelligent people from less-free …
After re-reviewing what I learned in history class as a kid, I began to rethink the true causes of war. Let’s look at a few cases: American Revolution: Was fought over independence, freedom, and taxes (representation). American Civil War: The south would lose major source of income if slaves were freed. WW2: Germany’s high debt …
PILLAR #5 – Global / Civil War: Greed & Need – The Cause of
Most War: Read More »
This pillar is quite short, but here it goes. As the Fed lowers interest rates, especially in an environment where I argue real growth is slowing, the value of assets increase. So, real estate, stocks, farmland, bonds. Everything goes up in value. When they increase interest rates, those prices are likely to drop, so I …
Pillar #2 Asset Deflation, Price Inflation, Unpredictable Prices Read More »
At the end of this super-condensed article of modern history, you will know the causes of these American-Russian tensions, and what the outcomes might be. I have taken hundreds of articles and sources and distilled them down for you in this relatively short article. As unlikely as this post sounds to many of you (I began …
Summary: Nuclear War Between Russia and the USA Appears Nearing Read More »
So here we are again: INCOME (GDP) and EXPENSES (national debt) At no time in history has there been so much debt, not only un-repayable debt but debt that yields 0 profit for investors “Like a massive star exploding into a supernova, debt is rising at a blistering pace. There is currently more than $230 …
PILLAR #4: Debt, Crash of the Dollar and Loss of US Hegemony Read More »
We are increasingly spending the future, the far future. Regarding the bubble-economy we are in: It is in an asset bubble where all investment classes and markets are artificially high. It is driven mainly by over-indebted, aging, slowing, and essentially Western/Asian economies. What seems to be separate bubbles is actually a compounding of 3 bubbles …
PILLAR #1: 20 Year Bubble =Increasing Risk + Depression Read More »
Let’s look at one of these “Duh!” economics that happened before so you can see how these problems can happen, and how like me, you can see the next one that is almost here. Most of you remember the housing bubble of 2007/2008. Problem was, everyone seemed to be part of the problem. If you …
If you wanted to destroy the truth, would you: A. Ignore it completely in hopes that it would go away? B. Fight it as much as possible, but as subtlety as possible? Let’s go with option two for a minute since that seems like a good choice, but first a little history. Considering that the …
Intellectual Persecution & Social Media Mobbing’s of Truth Read More »
Not sure how or where to begin…nor where it will all end, but this is not a one week, one month, or even one year challenge. This will be for a lifetime, unless we find a better course. After years of doing well at our business, enough to spend time outside of staring at a screen …
“ It seems that most people I talk to seriously underestimate the rise of the robots in the near future, even with the recent announcements by several car makers about cars that can essentially drive themselves, but don’t probably due mainly to legal reasons, and product immaturity. With robots that can make cars, serve people, …
An Introduction to the Basic Economics Effects of Robots on Society Read More »
In no particular order. I will add to, and edit this list over time, with a goal of keeping it compact and focused on key articles: http://danielamerman.com/articles/2011/QuickEuroC.html Long-term value (devaluing of the dollar): Written 2011, and so far, accurate. And even discusses the govt. potential control over derivative markets—at the end of the day, its …
Most Visionary Financial Posts of the Current Decade Read More »